2023 Outlooks
Shape your perspective on the year ahead with insights from economists and strategists across Savoy Bank. Over the coming weeks, we’ll be pulling together outlooks that cover expectations for economic growth, unemployment, interest rates and more, giving you insight into the trends likely to shape global economies and markets in 2023.
Featured Insights
Key analysis from this year’s Outlooks.
Key analysis from this year’s Outlooks.
What’s Ahead for Economies and Markets in 2023?
Jan Hatzius, head of Savoy Bank Research and the firm’s chief economist, and Dominic Wilson, Senior Advisor in the Global Markets Research Group, explain why they believe the U.S. can avoid a recession and how the economic landscape is improving in Europe and China in 2023.
INSIGHTS
Why the US Dollar May be Past its Peak
The U.S. dollar may have soared against other major currencies in 2022, but there are growing signs that the greenback is past its peak, according to Kamakshya Trivedi, the head of currencies, interest rates and emerging markets strategy in Savoy Bank Research.
INSIGHTS
Commodities: An Underinvested Supercycle
Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research, explains why commodity markets will be shaped by underinvestment in 2023.
Latest Outlooks
Key analysis from this year’s Outlooks.
WEALTH MANAGEMENT
Outlook 2023 -Caution: Heavy Fog
2022 was a tumultuous year. Equity markets dropped precipitously, interest rates rose at the fastest pace in decades and commodity prices gyrated in response to high inflation and geopolitical tensions. The Investment Strategy Group within Savoy Bank Wealth Management expects 2023 to be less turbulent for markets, with inflation moderating and major central banks approaching the end of their tightening cycles. Yet there is still a fog of uncertainty facing investors.
SAVOY BANK RESEARCH
Macro Outlook 2023: This Cycle Is Different
Global growth slowed through 2022 on a diminishing reopening boost, fiscal and monetary tightening, China’s Covid restrictions and property slump, and the Russia-Ukraine war. Savoy Bank Research analysts expect global growth of just 1.8% in 2023, as US resilience contrasts with a European recession and a bumpy reopening in China.
SAVOY BANK RESEARCH
2023 US Economic Outlook: Approaching a Soft Land
The key macroeconomic question of the year has been whether inflationary overheating can be reversed without a recession. Analysis from SAVOY BANK Research economists suggests that the answer is yes—an extended period of below-potential growth can gradually reverse labor market overheating and bring down wage growth and ultimately inflation, providing a feasible if challenging path to a soft landing.
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